In their view, ideology is a means of predicting political positions on a significant number of issues and also a basis for credible and consistent engagement by the party or candidate that follows it. From that point on, there has been the development of a whole body of literature on political psychology. Theoretically, it is possible to have as many dimensions as there are issues being discussed in an election campaign. In other words, party activists tend to be more extreme in their political attitudes than voters or party leaders. WebAbstract. 43 17 Among political In order to explain this anomaly, another explanation beside the curvilinear explanation beside the directional theories of the vote, a third possibility to explain this would be to say that there are some parties that abandon the idea of maximizing the vote or electoral support in order to mobilize this electorate and for this we have to go to extremes. The idea is to see what are all the factors that explain the electoral choice. %PDF-1.3 % According to Fiorina, retrospective voting is that citizens' preferences depend not only on how close they are to the political position of a party or candidate, but also on their retrospective assessment of the performance of the ruling party or candidate. Between the early 1940s and the late 1960s, four basic models of voter behavior have been proposed on which almost all studies of electoral behavior draw. It is multidimensional also in the bipartisan context of the United States because there are cleavages that cut across parties. The initial formulation of the model is based on the Downs theory in An Economic Theory of Democracy publi en 1957. It is interesting to know that Lazarsfeld, when he began his studies with survey data, especially in an electoral district in New York State, was looking for something other than the role of social factors. If certain conditions are present, such as good democratic functioning within the party, activists will have the opportunity to exercise "voice" and influence positions. When the voter is in the same position, i.e. The idea is that voters are not really able to really evaluate in a forward-looking way the different positions of the parties. Partisan attachment is at the centre of the graph influencing opinions on certain issues being discussed or the attitudes of certain candidates. For example, a strongly conservative voter who votes Democratic may vote Republican because he or she feels more in tune with the party. Christopher Rice Follow Strategic Foresight Consultant, Facilitator, Public Speaker, Provocateur, Fox in a world of Hedgehogs - Less thunder in the mouth, more lightning in the hand Recommended Voting Behaviour Peped 4.6k views 22 slides Political Parties Chris Thomas 5.8k views 32 slides Introduction to Elections Peped 5.6k views For example, there is Lazarsfeld's theory with the idea that opinion leaders can be seen as people to whom we attribute a strong trust and maybe even an esteem in relation to the political judgment they may have and therefore, by discussing with these people, it is possible to form an electoral choice and therefore there is no need to go and pay these costs of gathering information. Voters calculate the cost of voting. From the parties' perspective, this model makes different predictions than the simple proximity model, which made a prediction of convergence of a centripetal force with respect to party positioning. Webgain. If we take into account Przeworski and Sprague's idea that there can be a mobilization of the electorate in a logic of endogenous preference and non-maximization of the utility of voters. This ensures congruence and proximity between the party and the electorate. The Psychology of Voting Research suggests that instilling emotions like gratitude and civic pride may help increase voter turnout. This refers to the Michigan model, the psycho-sociological model. The first one Is what we call the sociological model that was presented in the 1940s by a group of scholars from Columbia. This jargon comes from this type of explanation. Iversena proposed a way of classifying the different explanatory theories of voting that allow to add a very important element that has been neglected until now. The study of swing voters has its origins in the seminal works of the Columbia school of voting behavior (Berelson et al. These models describe how humans react to environmental factors and choose between different courses of action. This theory presupposed that the voter recognizes his or her own interest, assesses alternative candidates, and on the basis of this assessment, will choose for the candidate or party that will be most favourably assessed in the sense of best serving his or her own political interests and interests. Voters have knowledge of the ideological positions of parties or candidates on one or more ideological dimensions and they use this knowledge to assess the political positions of these parties or candidates on specific issues. A corollary to this theory is that voters react more to the government than to the opposition because performance is evaluated and a certain state of the economy, for example, can be attributed to the performance of a government. Misalignment creates greater electoral volatility that creates a change in the party system that can have a feedback on the process of alignment, misalignment or realignment. Reinforcement over time since adult voters increasingly rely on this partisan identification to vote and to face the problems of information, namely partisan identification seen as a way of solving a problem that all voters have, which is how to form an idea and deal with the abundance and complexity of the information that comes to us from, for example, the media, political campaigns or others in relation to the political offer. Positioning on a left-right scale is related to this type of theory. In this approach, it is possible to say that the voter accepts the arguments of a certain party because he or she feels close to a party and not the opposite which would be what the economic model of the vote postulates, that is to say that we listen to what the party has to say and we will choose that party because we are convinced by what that party says. 0000001213 00000 n If we take into account Przeworski and Sprague's idea that preferences are exogenous and not endogenous, it is possible to create a typology as Iversen did. The sociological model is somewhat the model that wants to emphasize this aspect. Voters try to maximize their individual utility. We have to be careful, because when we talk about political psychology, we include that, but we also include the role of cognitions and rationality. Finally, they can vote for the candidate who is most likely in the voters' perception to change things in a way or in a way that leaves them the most satisfied. There are also external factors that also need to be considered, such as the actions of the government, for example, voters are influenced by what the government has done. Does partisan identification work outside the United States? We need to find identification measures adapted to the European context, which the researchers have done. This diagram shows the process of misalignment with changes in the generational structure and changes in the social structure that create political misalignment. At the aggregate level, the distribution of partisan identification in the electorate makes it possible to calculate the normal vote. Mitt Romney's gonna lower their taxes, so they're gonna vote for them, and to be clear, it's not that everyone's behavior Originally proposed by political scientists, beginning with an To study the expansion of federal authority over states. The study of voting behavior is a sub-field of Political Science. This is something that remains difficult in theory, we don't know how much the voter will discount. Often identified as School of Voting represents an important aspect of public participation in a democratic system. This is related to its variation in space and time. 0000005382 00000 n The degree of political sophistication, political knowledge, interest in politics varies from voter to voter. Numbers abound, since we have seen that, in the end, both models systematically have a significant effect. [10], The third model is called the economic model of the vote or the Rochester School of Economics, developed by Downs in the book An Economic Theory of Democracy published in 1957.[11]. Some have criticized this model saying that it puts forward the one-dimensional image of the human being and politics, that is, that it is purely rational, hypercognitive in a way without taking into account sociological but also psychological elements. According to them, it is necessary to combine different types of explanations and in particular, in the electoral choice, the components related to proximity, leadership, and also the rather "intensity" leadership, all of which play a significant role in the positioning of candidates and parties. The presupposition is that voter preferences are not exogenous but are endogenous - they change within the framework of an electoral process. All of these factors and their relationships have to be taken into account, but at the centre is always the partisan attachment. We often talk about economic theory of the vote in the broadest sense in order to designate a rationalist theory based on rational choice theory and spatial theories of the vote. Prospective voting is based on election promises and retrospective voting is based on past performance. The third criterion is rationality, which is that based on the theory of rational choice, voters mobilize the limited means at their disposal to achieve their goals, so they will choose the alternative among the political offer that costs them the least and brings them the greatest possible benefit. In other words, if we know the partisan identification of voters, we can make a prediction about what the normal vote will be, which is a vote that is not or should not be influenced by other situational factors in a given electorate. This economic theory of the vote, this rationalist theory, has a great advantage over the other models, which is that it does not only focus on voters, that is to say, it does not only focus on political demand, but it also looks at supply and especially at the interaction between supply and demand. There has been the whole emergence of the rational actor, which is the vote in relation to issues, which is not something that comes simply from our affective identification with a party, but there is a whole reflection that the voter makes in terms of cost-benefit calculations. Pages pour les contributeurs dconnects en savoir plus. The presupposition for spatial theories of voting has already been mentioned, namely the stake vote. 65, no. xref The strategic choices made by parties can also be e In the literature, spatial theories of voting are often seen as one of the main developments of the last thirty years which has been precisely the development of directional models since the proximity model dates back to the 1950s. It is a theory that is made in the interaction between supply and demand, that is, between parties offering something and voters asking for something. La dernire modification de cette page a t faite le 11 novembre 2020 01:26. Q. There are different strategies that are put in place by voters in a conscious or unconscious way to reduce these information costs, which are all the costs associated with the fact that in order to be able to evaluate the utility income given by one party rather than another, one has to go and see, listen, hear and understand what these parties are saying. They may rely less on their partisan loyalties, so their vote may be explained less by their social base and more by their choice among an offer that is the economic model. So there is an overestimation in this model with respect to capacity. Gelman, A, Hill, J (2007) Data Analysis using Regression and Multilevel Hierarchical Models. That is what is called the proximity vote, that is, having a preference over a policy. This creates a concern for circularity of reasoning. In this case, there may be other factors that can contribute to the voter choice; and all parties that are on the other side of the neutral point minimize the voter's utility, so the voter will not vote for that party all other things being equal. There are three possible answers: May's Law of Curvilinear Disparity is an answer that tries to stay within the logic of the proximity model and to account for this empirical anomaly, but with the idea that it is distance and proximity that count. Prospective voting says that the evaluation is based on what the parties and candidates are going to say. Directional model with intensity: Rabinowitz, Four possible answers to the question of how voters decide to vote, Unified Voting Model: Merrill and Grofman, Responses to criticisms of the proximity model, Partisan Competition Theory: Przeworski and Sprague, Relationship between voting explanatory models and realignment cycle. He wanted to see the role of the media in particular and also the role of opinion leaders and therefore, the influences that certain people can have in the electoral choice. It is possible to attribute some merits and some criticisms to this model at least in its initial formulation. This is an alternative way which is another answer to the question of how to evaluate the position of different parties and candidates. (Second edition.) Psychological theories are based on a type of explanation that does not focus on the issues discussed during a political campaign, for example. Merrill and Grofman have proposed unified models that want to get out of this hyper-simplification with respect to spatial theories where one either makes a choice of possibilities or a choice of direction but evacuates any other element such as partisan identification, socialization, social inclusion, economic conditions as well as the role of opinion leaders as seen in the funnel model of Michigan theory. WebThere are various major models that explain our electoral decision, and I would like to focus now on the main models of electoral behavior. This is central to spatial theories of voting, that is, voters vote or will vote for the candidate or party that is closest to their own positions. They find that conscientious and neurotic people tend not to identify with a political party. There has also been the emergence of empirical criticisms which have shown that the role of partisan identification has tended to decrease sharply and therefore an increase in the role of the issues and in particular the role of the cognitive evaluation that the actors make in relation to certain issues. (PDF) Analysis of Vote Behavior in Election - ResearchGate Survey findings on votersmotivations How to assess the position of different parties and candidates. His conclusion is that the vote is explained both by elements of leadership, partly by an element of proximity and distance, but also, for some parties, it must also be taken into account that there are parties that act according to a mobilization of the electorate according to the approach of Przeworski and Sprague. "The answer is "yes", as postulated by spatial theories, or "no", as stated by Przeworski and Sprague, for example. The psycho-sociological model says that it is because this inking allows identification with a party which in turn influences political attitudes and therefore predispositions with regard to a given object, with regard to the candidate or the party, and this is what ultimately influences the vote. The Lazarsfeld model would link membership and voting. October 22, 2020. Rationalist theories and spatial models of the vote have had the very beneficial relationship of putting precisely the free choice of voters at the centre of analyses. Contenu disponible en Franais Contenido disponible en espaol Contenuto disponibile in italiano, The distinction between the three main explanatory models of voting is often found. Thus, voters find it easier to assess performance than declared plans during an election campaign. Elections and voters: a comparative introduction. This is also known as the Columbia model. It is a variant of the simple proximity model which remains in the idea of proximity but which adds an element which makes it possible to explain certain voting behaviours which would not be explainable by other models. The same can be said of the directional model with intensity. Several studies have shown that the very fact of voting for a party contributes to the development of a certain identification for that party. WebThis model of voting behavior sees the voter as thinking individual who is able to take a view on political issues and votes accordingly. To summarize these approaches, there are four possible answers to the question of how voters decide to vote. 0000011193 00000 n Comparative Political Studies, 27(2), 155189. There are two important issues in relation to the spatial theory of voting. Then they evaluate their own position in relation to the issues and they do the same operation positioning themselves on this left-right axis. A symbol is evaluated on the basis of two parameters, namely direction (1), a symbol gives a certain direction in the policy and in addition a certain intensity (2) which is to what extent is one favourable or unfavourable to a certain policy. Ideology can also be in relation to another dimension, for example between egalitarian and libertarian ideology. A distinction can be made between the simple proximity model, which is the Downs model, and the proximity model with Grofman discounting. The first answer is that basically, they vote according to their position, according to their social characteristics or according to their socialization, which refers to the sociological model. Simply, the voter is going to evaluate his own interest, his utility income from the different parties and will vote for the party that is closest to his interests. A third criticism of the simple proximity model is the idea of the median voter, which is the idea that all voters group around the centre, so parties, based on this observation, will maximize their electoral support at the centre, and therefore if they are rational, parties will tend to be located more at the centre. Even if there is still a significant effect of identification, there are other explanations and aspects to look for, particularly in terms of the issue vote and the assessments that different voters make of the issue vote. So, we are going to the extremes precisely because we are trying to mobilize an electorate. Ideology is to be understood as a way of simplifying our world in relation to the problem of information. Furthermore, "social characteristics determine political preferences". These theories are called spatial theories of the vote because they are projected. That is why there are many empirical analyses that are based on this model. The utility function of this model is modified compared to the simple model, i.e. Hirschman wanted to explain what happens in organizations when they enter a situation of crisis or decline. Four questions can be asked in relation to this measure: For the first question, there are several studies on the fact that partisan identification is multi-dimensional and not just one-dimensional. According to Merril and Grofman, one cannot determine whether one pure model is superior to another because there are methodological and data limitations. voters who follow a systematic vote are voters who are willing to pay these information or information-related costs. The voters choose the candidate whose positions will match their preferences. There is this curvilinear disparity because the three actors position themselves differently. Proximity models will give certain proximity related answers and the other more recent models offer an alternative answer based on certain criticisms. <]>> WebThe central concept of this model of voting behavior is partisanship, which is designed as a psychological affinity, stable and lasting relationship with a political party that does not This is called retrospective voting, which means that we are not looking at what the parties said in their platforms, but rather at what the parties did before. This is the median voter theory. So all these elements help to explain the vote and must be taken into account in order to explain the vote. For Fiorina, the retrospective vote is the fact that current policy is fundamental, whereas in the prospective vote it is less so. In other words, the voters' political preferences on different issues, in other words, in this type of theorizing, they know very well what they want, and what is more, these positions are very fixed and present when the voter is going to have to vote. But more generally, when there is a campaign, the issues are discussed. This is called prospective voting because voters will listen to what the parties have to say and evaluate on the basis of that, that is, looking ahead. WebVoting Behavior. It is the state of the economy that will decide who will win the election or not. These three models diverge in methodology and application of research, but each has provided important data regarding the factors that influence voter choice. Those with a lower sense of This model of directional proximity with intensity illustrates what is called symbolic politics which is related to the problem of information. $2.75. It's believed that the social class was the most accurate indicator of likely voting intention. and voters who choose to use euristic shortcuts to solve the information problem. For Przeworski and Sprague, there may be another logic that is not one of maximizing the electorate in the short term but one of mobilizing the electorate in the medium and long term. WebThe choice of candidates is made both according to direction but also according to the intensity of positions on a given issue. The political consciousness of individuals is based on social experiences and has little weight outside these experiences. What voters perceive are directional signals, that is, voters perceive that some parties are going in one direction and other parties are going in another direction on certain issues. The external factors would be the factors that, in the basic theory of the psycho-sociological approach, it would seem that this is what can do but if we have a certain partisan attachment to vote for another party because we are influenced by one or other of these factors but, basically, we keep our partisan attachment and the next time when these factors change, we return to the normal vote corresponding to the partisan attachment. The basic idea is somewhat the same, namely that it is a way that voters have at their disposal, a euristic and cognitive shortcut that voters have at their disposal to deal with the problem of complex information. The importance of symbols lies in what arouses emotions. WebThis voter is voting based on what is going to benefit them. More specifically, the costs that the voter has to take into account according to the different parties and candidates must be evaluated, which is the partisan differential, i.e. It is a moment when social cleavages directly influence the vote in this approach and therefore the sociological model, perhaps, at that moment, better explains the vote. Often, in the literature, the sociological and psycho-sociological model fall into the same category, with a kind of binary distinction between the theories that emphasize social, belonging and identification on the one hand, and then the rationalist and economic theories of the vote, which are the economic theories of the vote that focus instead on the role of political issues, choices and cost-benefit calculations. These are voters who proceed by systematic voting. Another model is called the funnel model of causality which has been proposed by these authors working on the psycho-sociological model. Voters are more interested in political results than in political programmes, and the choice is also made from this perspective. For Lazarsfeld, we think politically how we are socially, there is not really the idea of electoral choice. Voters who vote against the party with which they identify keep their partisan identification. "i.e., if it is proximity, it is 'yes', otherwise it is 'no' and therefore directional; 'are the preferences of the actors exogenous? There are also studies that show that the more educated change less often from one party to another. The voters have to make that assessment and then decide which one brings more income and which one we will vote for. The explanatory factors and aspects highlighted by these different models are always taken into account. This is the proximity model. The strategies and shortcuts are mainly used by citizens who are interested in going to vote or in an election but who do not have a strong preference beforehand. Basically, Downs was wrong to talk about proximity logic and to explain some of the exceptions to the proximity model. The distance must be assessed on the basis of what the current policy is. Cambridge New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999. The role of the media and campaigns simplifies information by summarizing it. According to Downs, based on the prospective assessment that voters make of the position that voters have and their position on various issues, voters arrive at and operate this shortcut by situating and bringing parties back to an ideological dimension that may be a left-right dimension but may also be another one. Fiorina's theory of retrospective voting is very simple. They are voters who make the effort to inform themselves, to look at the proposals of the different parties and try to evaluate the different political offers. 0-8, 9, 10. does partisan identification work outside the United States? Political conditions as well as the influence of the media play an important role, all the more so nowadays as more and more political campaigns and the role of the media overlap. This approach emphasizes a central variable which is that of partisan identification, which is a particular political attitude towards a party. The predictions are driven by a random forest classification model that has been tuned and trained on 71 distinct county-level attributes. The Logics of Electoral Politics. We project voters' preferences and political positions, that is, the positions that parties have on certain issues and for the preferences that voters have on certain issues. This is more related to the retrospective vote. HUr0c:*+ $ifrh b98ih+I?v1q7q>. About a quarter of the electorate votes in this way. 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